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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Beijing Renhe — League One 2018

Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
11/18/2020League OneLeague One · Relegation Play-offsSuzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng34%
×Draw27%
Beijing Renhe39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.21
Beijing Renhe
1.33

Beijing Renhe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
0.99
Beijing Renhe
0.78

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.89
Beijing Renhe
1.44

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw
61%
Jiangxi Liansheng or Beijing Renhe
73%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
66%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
14%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
70%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
34%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
12%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
74%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
38%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
46%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Beijing Renhe attack 0.78 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
34%
level
27%
Beijing Renhe scores more
39%

Beijing Renhe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Jiangxi Liansheng 2–1 Beijing Renhe

Jiangxi Liansheng beat Beijing Renhe 2-1 in League One on November 18, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.