Beijing Renhe 1–1 Jiangxi Liansheng: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jiangxi Liansheng

11/21/2020

League One · Relegation Play-offsSuzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beijing Renhe46%

×Draw24%

Jiangxi Liansheng30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchJiangxi Liansheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.35

Beijing Renhe

1.73

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.35

Beijing Renhe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 73 away

1.88

creates per match

0.95

1.75

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.88

Jiangxi Liansheng

0.95

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.75

Jiangxi Liansheng

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

70%

Beijing Renhe or Jiangxi Liansheng

76%

Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng

54%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

25%

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

82%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

52%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

25%

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals

74%

Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals

39%

Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

61%

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.88 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

46%

level

24%

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more

30%

Beijing Renhe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff