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Jiangxi Liansheng vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
11/12/2022League OneLeague One · Round 29Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Jiangxi Liansheng33%
×Draw25%
Beijing Baxy42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.27
Beijing Baxy
1.48

Beijing Baxy creates 17% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 71 away

creates per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
0.99
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Jiangxi Liansheng
1.89
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangxi Liansheng ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jiangxi Liansheng or draw
58%
Jiangxi Liansheng or Beijing Baxy
75%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
67%

Winning margin

Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
14%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
72%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
36%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
14%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
43%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
44%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangxi Liansheng at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.89 · 72 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.99 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
33%
level
25%
Beijing Baxy scores more
42%

Beijing Baxy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Jiangxi Liansheng 0–1 Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Jiangxi Liansheng 1-0 in League One on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3 in Dalian.