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Beijing Baxy vs Jiangxi Liansheng — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jiangxi Liansheng
Jiangxi Liansheng
12/7/2022League OneLeague One · Round 34Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Beijing Baxy47%
×Draw26%
Jiangxi Liansheng27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.49
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.05

Beijing Baxy creates 42% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 73 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Jiangxi Liansheng
0.95

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Jiangxi Liansheng
1.59

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Jiangxi Liansheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Jiangxi Liansheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
73%
Beijing Baxy or Jiangxi Liansheng
74%
Draw or Jiangxi Liansheng
53%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
24%
Jiangxi Liansheng wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
77%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
44%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
19%
Jiangxi Liansheng 1+ goals
65%
Jiangxi Liansheng 2+ goals
28%
Jiangxi Liansheng 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
64%
Jiangxi Liansheng (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Jiangxi Liansheng away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Jiangxi Liansheng defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.49

Jiangxi Liansheng attack 0.95 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
47%
level
26%
Jiangxi Liansheng scores more
27%

Beijing Baxy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 0–1 Jiangxi Liansheng

Jiangxi Liansheng beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in League One on December 7, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Sports Centre Stadium Field No.3 in Dalian.