Jiangsu Suning 2–0 Shenzhen Ruby FC: Result & Stats

Jiangsu Suning

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shenzhen Ruby FC

9/18/2020

FA Cup · 1st RoundJinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jiangsu Suning58%

×Draw23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangsu SuningExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.90

Jiangsu Suning

1.77

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.90

Jiangsu Suning creates 97% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning

2.33

Shenzhen Ruby FC

0.80

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning

1.00

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw

81%

Jiangsu Suning or Shenzhen Ruby FC

77%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

42%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

33%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

83%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

53%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

26%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

59%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

75%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 2.33 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.80 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more

58%

level

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

19%

Jiangsu Suning at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff