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Jiangsu Suning vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
7/28/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Nanjing Olympic Sports Center (Nanjing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jiangsu Suning63%
×Draw20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangsu Suning
2.08
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0.96

Jiangsu Suning creates 117% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 67 away

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning
1.90
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning
0.88
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw
83%
Jiangsu Suning or Shenzhen Ruby FC
80%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
37%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
39%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
87%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
61%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
34%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
62%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
25%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
79%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.08

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more
63%
level
20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
17%

Jiangsu Suning at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiangsu Suning vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Jiangsu Suning beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-0 in Super League on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Nanjing Olympic Sports Center (Nanjing).