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Jiangsu Suning vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
8/5/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jiangsu Suning68%
×Draw18%
Guizhou Zhicheng14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jiangsu Suning
2.31
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.94

Jiangsu Suning creates 146% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning
1.90
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning
0.88
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw
86%
Jiangsu Suning or Guizhou Zhicheng
82%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
32%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
45%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
90%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
67%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
40%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
61%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
24%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
83%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.31

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more
68%
level
18%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
14%

Jiangsu Suning at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jiangsu Suning vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Jiangsu Suning beat Guizhou Zhicheng 3-1 in Super League on August 5, 2018.

The match was played at Nanjing Olympic Sports Center in Nanjing.