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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Jiangsu Suning — Super League 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Jiangsu Suning
Jiangsu Suning
3/4/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 1Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng33%
×Draw24%
Jiangsu Suning43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.36
Jiangsu Suning
1.60

Jiangsu Suning creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 39 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27
Jiangsu Suning
1.54

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.67
Jiangsu Suning
1.46

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Jiangsu Suning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
57%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Jiangsu Suning
76%
Draw or Jiangsu Suning
67%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
14%
Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
74%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
16%
Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals
80%
Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals
47%
Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
43%
Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
33%
level
24%
Jiangsu Suning scores more
43%

Jiangsu Suning at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Jiangsu Suning

Jiangsu Suning beat Guizhou Zhicheng 3-1 in Super League on March 4, 2018.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.