Jiangsu Suning 4–1 Beijing Renhe: Result & Stats

Jiangsu Suning

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Renhe

6/16/2019

Super League · Round 13Nanjing Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jiangsu Suning63%

×Draw21%

Beijing Renhe16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiangsu SuningExpected goals in this matchBeijing Renhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.84

Jiangsu Suning

1.94

Beijing Renhe

0.84

Jiangsu Suning creates 131% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

1.90

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Jiangsu Suning

1.90

Beijing Renhe

0.80

allows per match

Jiangsu Suning

0.88

Beijing Renhe

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiangsu Suning ↓

Beijing Renhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jiangsu Suning or draw

84%

Jiangsu Suning or Beijing Renhe

79%

Draw or Beijing Renhe

37%

Winning margin

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

38%

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

86%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

58%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

30%

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

57%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

21%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

80%

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiangsu Suning at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.90 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.94

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Jiangsu Suning defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jiangsu Suning scores more

63%

level

21%

Beijing Renhe scores more

16%

Jiangsu Suning at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff