Beijing Renhe 0–2 Jiangsu Suning: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Jiangsu Suning

10/27/2018

Super League · Round 27Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe31%

×Draw24%

Jiangsu Suning45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchJiangsu Suning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.64

Beijing Renhe

1.31

Jiangsu Suning

1.64

Jiangsu Suning creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

1.17

creates per match

1.54

1.73

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.17

Jiangsu Suning

1.54

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.73

Jiangsu Suning

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Jiangsu Suning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Jiangsu Suning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

55%

Beijing Renhe or Jiangsu Suning

76%

Draw or Jiangsu Suning

69%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

13%

Jiangsu Suning wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

73%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

38%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

14%

Jiangsu Suning 1+ goals

81%

Jiangsu Suning 2+ goals

49%

Jiangsu Suning 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

40%

Jiangsu Suning (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Jiangsu Suning away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Jiangsu Suning defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Jiangsu Suning attack 1.54 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

31%

level

24%

Jiangsu Suning scores more

45%

Jiangsu Suning at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jiangsu Suning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff