Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jia Hua vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Jia Hua
Jia Hua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
3/8/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Jia Hua48%
×Draw22%
Cheng Fung30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jia Hua
1.95
Cheng Fung
1.52

Jia Hua creates 28% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 35 away

creates per match

Jia Hua
2.52
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Jia Hua
1.16
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Jia Hua+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jia Hua ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Jia Hua or draw
70%
Jia Hua or Cheng Fung
78%
Draw or Cheng Fung
52%

Winning margin

Jia Hua wins by 2+
27%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jia Hua 1+ goals
86%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
58%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
31%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
78%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
45%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jia Hua (draw refunded)
61%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jia Hua at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jia Hua attack 2.52 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.95

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Jia Hua defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jia Hua scores more
48%
level
22%
Cheng Fung scores more
30%

Jia Hua at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jia Hua vs Cheng Fung

Cheng Fung beat Jia Hua 2-1 in Primeira Divisão on March 8, 2026.