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Cheng Fung vs Jia Hua — Primeira Divisão 2026

Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Jia Hua
Jia Hua
6/27/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Cheng Fung27%
×Draw18%
Jia Hua55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheng Fung
1.90
Jia Hua
2.72

Jia Hua creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cheng Fung
2.19
Jia Hua
3.32

allows per match

Cheng Fung
2.13
Jia Hua
1.60

finishing

Cheng Fung+0.00on par
Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheng Fung ↓

Jia Hua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Cheng Fung or draw
45%
Cheng Fung or Jia Hua
82%
Draw or Jia Hua
73%

Winning margin

Cheng Fung wins by 2+
13%
Jia Hua wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Cheng Fung 1+ goals
85%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
56%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
29%
Jia Hua 1+ goals
93%
Jia Hua 2+ goals
75%
Jia Hua 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
33%
Jia Hua (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheng Fung at home — creates 2.19, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheng Fung attack 2.19 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Cheng Fung defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cheng Fung scores more
27%
level
18%
Jia Hua scores more
55%

Jia Hua at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Cheng Fung 1–4 Jia Hua

Jia Hua beat Cheng Fung 4-1 in Primeira Divisão on June 27, 2026.