Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2–0 JS Kairouanaise

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

B. Touati 52'

H. Kouki 43'

10/18/2025

League #202 · Round 10Stade Chedly Zouiten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane50%

×Draw27%

JS Kairouanaise23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunesse Sportive OmraneExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.88

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.42

JS Kairouanaise

0.88

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 64 away

1.17

creates per match

0.58

1.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.17

JS Kairouanaise

0.58

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

1.17

JS Kairouanaise

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw

77%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or JS Kairouanaise

73%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

50%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+

24%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals

76%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals

41%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals

17%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

59%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

22%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)

68%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.67 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.58 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more

50%

level

27%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

23%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Kasmir

41'

E. Bekale

43'

H. Kouki

46'

F. Kayramani← B. Touray

52'

B. Touati

54'

M. Souissi

57'

S. Lakhder

63'

Y. Ben Ammar← Z. Kada

69'

I. Ben Rejeb← M. Askri

69'

H. Khemissi← A. Kasmir

74'

M. Jammel← H. Mhamdi

74'

I. Liouan← M. Hamrouni

83'

S. Abdelli← B. Touati

83'

C. Zoughlami← O. Belhaj

90+6'

F. Sallami← A. Zairi

Jeunesse

JS

1

2

3

17

30

23

27

31

▼

Touray

10

▼

Zairi

11

▼

Kada

29

▼

22

2

4

12

▼

Mhamdi

27

Mgannem

30

⚽

Kouki

10

Hamida

9

⚽

▼

Touati

18

▼

Belhaj

28

▼

Askri

29

▼

Kasmir

Manager: L. Kadri

69'▲I. Ben Rejeb←▼M. Askri

69'▲H. Khemissi←▼A. Kasmir

74'▲M. Jammel←▼H. Mhamdi

83'▲S. Abdelli←▼B. Touati

83'▲C. Zoughlami←▼O. Belhaj

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane substitutes

1Essid6Othmani20Hammami25Jammel26Zouaghi7Rejeb24Khemissi11Abdelli17Zoughlami

Manager: L. Chriti

46'▲F. Kayramani←▼B. Touray

63'▲Y. Ben Ammar←▼Z. Kada

74'▲I. Liouan←▼M. Hamrouni

90+6'▲F. Sallami←▼A. Zairi

JS Kairouanaise substitutes

22Bejaoui5Kalai6Liouan13Meddeb8Sallami24Onyedikachi28Kayramani25Aboubacar26Ammar