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JS Kairouanaise vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
12/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

JS Kairouanaise40%
×Draw31%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
1.10
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.89

JS Kairouanaise creates 24% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 23 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
1.42
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.60
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
71%
JS Kairouanaise or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
69%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
60%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
16%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
67%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
30%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
10%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
59%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
22%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
58%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.10

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
40%
level
31%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
29%

JS Kairouanaise at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: JS Kairouanaise 2–1 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

JS Kairouanaise beat Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2-1 in Ligue 2 on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani in Kairouan.