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Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
3/18/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane60%
×Draw23%
EGS Gafsa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.81
EGS Gafsa
0.86

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 110% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 36 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
82%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or EGS Gafsa
77%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
40%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
34%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
84%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
54%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
27%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
58%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
21%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
77%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.81

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
60%
level
23%
EGS Gafsa scores more
18%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2–2 EGS Gafsa

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and EGS Gafsa drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.