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EGS Gafsa vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
1 – 0
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
11/6/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

EGS Gafsa44%
×Draw30%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.21
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.86

EGS Gafsa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.17

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.78

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
74%
EGS Gafsa or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
70%
Draw or Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
56%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
19%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
70%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
34%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
12%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
58%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
21%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
63%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 1.17 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
44%
level
30%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
26%

EGS Gafsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EGS Gafsa 1–0 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

EGS Gafsa beat Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.