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Jeunes Fauves vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
FT
0 – 0
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
3/26/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jeunes Fauves47%
×Draw27%
Unisport Bafang26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunes Fauves
1.40
Unisport Bafang
0.97

Jeunes Fauves creates 44% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.75
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves
0.88
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw
74%
Jeunes Fauves or Unisport Bafang
73%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
53%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
23%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
75%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
41%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
17%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
62%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
25%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
64%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.75 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Jeunes Fauves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more
47%
level
27%
Unisport Bafang scores more
26%

Jeunes Fauves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Jeunes Fauves 0–0 Unisport Bafang

Jeunes Fauves and Unisport Bafang drew 0-0 in Elite Two on March 26, 2021.