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Jeunes Fauves vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
3/18/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 17Stade Olembe Annexe B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves37%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunes Fauves
1.23
Fortuna Mfou
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 96 away

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.08
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.27
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw
65%
Jeunes Fauves or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
63%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
16%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
71%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
35%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
13%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
69%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
33%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
52%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more
37%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
35%

Jeunes Fauves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Jeunes Fauves 0–1 Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat Jeunes Fauves 1-0 in Elite One on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe B in Yaoundé.