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Fortuna Mfou vs Jeunes Fauves — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
2 – 4
Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
11/13/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fortuna Mfou47%
×Draw25%
Jeunes Fauves27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.54
Jeunes Fauves
1.10

Fortuna Mfou creates 40% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 47 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Jeunes Fauves
0.98

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Jeunes Fauves
1.81

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Jeunes Fauves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
73%
Fortuna Mfou or Jeunes Fauves
75%
Draw or Jeunes Fauves
53%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
24%
Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
79%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
20%
Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
67%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
30%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
64%
Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
47%
level
25%
Jeunes Fauves scores more
27%

Fortuna Mfou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Mfou vs Jeunes Fauves

Jeunes Fauves beat Fortuna Mfou 4-2 in Elite One on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.