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Kariana Erden vs Arda Kardzhali — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
7/28/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 1Stadion Kariana (Erden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kariana Erden39%
×Draw28%
Arda Kardzhali33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.24
Arda Kardzhali
1.10

Kariana Erden creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Arda Kardzhali
1.27

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Arda Kardzhali
0.87

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Arda Kardzhali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
67%
Kariana Erden or Arda Kardzhali
72%
Draw or Arda Kardzhali
61%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
17%
Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
71%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
35%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
13%
Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
67%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
30%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
55%
Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.27 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
39%
level
28%
Arda Kardzhali scores more
33%

Kariana Erden at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariana Erden vs Arda Kardzhali

Arda Kardzhali beat Kariana Erden 1-0 in Second League on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Kariana (Erden).