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Arda Kardzhali vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
12/1/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 16Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arda Kardzhali57%
×Draw26%
Kariana Erden17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.54
Kariana Erden
0.71

Arda Kardzhali creates 117% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.67
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
0.33
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
83%
Arda Kardzhali or Kariana Erden
74%
Draw or Kariana Erden
43%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
30%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
79%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
45%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
20%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
51%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
16%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
77%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
57%
level
26%
Kariana Erden scores more
17%

Arda Kardzhali at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arda Kardzhali vs Kariana Erden

Arda Kardzhali beat Kariana Erden 2-0 in Second League on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Arena Arda (Kardzhali).