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Jerba vs AS Gabes — Cup 2019

Jerba
Jerba
CANC
12:30
AS Gabes
AS Gabes
1/22/2022CupCup · 1st Preliminary Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jerba30%
×Draw31%
AS Gabes39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerba
0.92
AS Gabes
1.08

AS Gabes creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jerba
0.67
AS Gabes
0.83

allows per match

Jerba
1.33
AS Gabes
1.17

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par
AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

AS Gabes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jerba or draw
61%
Jerba or AS Gabes
69%
Draw or AS Gabes
70%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+
11%
AS Gabes wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals
60%
Jerba 2+ goals
23%
Jerba 3+ goals
7%
AS Gabes 1+ goals
66%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
29%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)
44%
AS Gabes (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 0.67 + AS Gabes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

AS Gabes attack 0.83 + Jerba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jerba scores more
30%
level
31%
AS Gabes scores more
39%

AS Gabes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jerba face AS Gabes (Cup)

Cup returns with Jerba hosting AS Gabes. Match starts January 22, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.