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AS Gabes vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
10/29/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

AS Gabes56%
×Draw28%
Jerba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
1.36
Jerba
0.58

AS Gabes creates 134% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 48 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
Jerba
1.23

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
84%
AS Gabes or Jerba
72%
Draw or Jerba
44%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
28%
Jerba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
74%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
39%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
16%
Jerba 1+ goals
44%
Jerba 2+ goals
12%
Jerba 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
78%
Jerba (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jerba attack 0.60 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AS Gabes scores more
56%
level
28%
Jerba scores more
16%

AS Gabes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS Gabes 1 – 0 Jerba

AS Gabes beat Jerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.