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Jeonnam Dragons vs Ceres — AFC Champions League 2018

Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ceres
Ceres
4/27/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons67%
×Draw19%
Ceres14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonnam Dragons
2.15
Ceres
0.85

Jeonnam Dragons creates 153% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.00
Ceres
0.70

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.00
Ceres
3.30

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw
86%
Jeonnam Dragons or Ceres
81%
Draw or Ceres
33%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+
43%
Ceres wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals
88%
Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals
63%
Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals
36%
Ceres 1+ goals
57%
Ceres 2+ goals
21%
Ceres 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)
83%
Ceres (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ceres away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.00 + Ceres defence 3.30 → ÷2 → 2.15

Ceres attack 0.70 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more
67%
level
19%
Ceres scores more
14%

Jeonnam Dragons at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonnam Dragons vs Ceres

Jeonnam Dragons beat Ceres 2-0 in AFC Champions League on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.