Ceres 0–1 Jeonnam Dragons: Result & Stats

Ceres

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonnam Dragons

4/15/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ceres18%

×Draw27%

Jeonnam Dragons55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeresExpected goals in this matchJeonnam Dragons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.46

Ceres

0.71

Jeonnam Dragons

1.46

Jeonnam Dragons creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

0.75

creates per match

0.67

2.25

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Ceres

0.75

Jeonnam Dragons

0.67

allows per match

Ceres

2.25

Jeonnam Dragons

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Jeonnam Dragons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ceres or draw

45%

Ceres or Jeonnam Dragons

73%

Draw or Jeonnam Dragons

82%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+

5%

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals

51%

Ceres 2+ goals

16%

Ceres 3+ goals

4%

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals

77%

Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals

43%

Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)

25%

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Jeonnam Dragons away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 0.75 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Jeonnam Dragons attack 0.67 + Ceres defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ceres scores more

18%

level

27%

Jeonnam Dragons scores more

55%

Jeonnam Dragons at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff