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Jeonnam Dragons vs Bucheon FC 1995 — K League 2 2026

Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bucheon FC 1995
Bucheon FC 1995
6/15/2024K League 2K League 2 · Round 17Gwangyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons41%
×Draw26%
Bucheon FC 199532%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonnam Dragons
1.40
Bucheon FC 1995
1.21

Jeonnam Dragons creates 16% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 144 away

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.41
Bucheon FC 1995
1.18

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.25
Bucheon FC 1995
1.39

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par
Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Bucheon FC 1995 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw
68%
Jeonnam Dragons or Bucheon FC 1995
74%
Draw or Bucheon FC 1995
59%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+
19%
Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals
75%
Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals
41%
Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals
17%
Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals
70%
Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals
34%
Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)
56%
Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 128 matches

Bucheon FC 1995 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.41 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.18 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more
41%
level
26%
Bucheon FC 1995 scores more
32%

Jeonnam Dragons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonnam Dragons vs Bucheon FC 1995

Jeonnam Dragons and Bucheon FC 1995 drew 1-1 in K League 2 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Gwangyang Stadium in Gwangyang.