Bucheon FC 1995 2–2 Jeonnam Dragons: Result & Stats

Bucheon FC 1995

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Jeonnam Dragons

5/4/2025

K League 2 · Round 10Bucheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Bucheon FC 199538%

×Draw27%

Jeonnam Dragons35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bucheon FC 1995Expected goals in this matchJeonnam Dragons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.21

Bucheon FC 1995

1.29

Jeonnam Dragons

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 143 home / 136 away

1.19

creates per match

1.29

1.12

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bucheon FC 1995

1.19

Jeonnam Dragons

1.29

allows per match

Bucheon FC 1995

1.12

Jeonnam Dragons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bucheon FC 1995+0.00on par

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bucheon FC 1995 ↓

Jeonnam Dragons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bucheon FC 1995 or draw

65%

Bucheon FC 1995 or Jeonnam Dragons

73%

Draw or Jeonnam Dragons

62%

Winning margin

Bucheon FC 1995 wins by 2+

17%

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bucheon FC 1995 1+ goals

72%

Bucheon FC 1995 2+ goals

37%

Bucheon FC 1995 3+ goals

14%

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals

70%

Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals

34%

Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bucheon FC 1995 (draw refunded)

53%

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bucheon FC 1995 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 143 matches

Jeonnam Dragons away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.40 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.19 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.29 + Bucheon FC 1995 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bucheon FC 1995 scores more

38%

level

27%

Jeonnam Dragons scores more

35%

Bucheon FC 1995 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bucheon FC 1995 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff