Jeonju 0–1 Cheonan City: Result & Stats | K3 League

Jeonju

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cheonan City

10/17/2020

K3 League · Relegation Round - 5Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju22%

×Draw24%

Cheonan City53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JeonjuExpected goals in this matchCheonan City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.69

Jeonju

1.00

Cheonan City

1.69

Cheonan City creates 69% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 71 away

0.91

creates per match

1.28

2.09

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Jeonju

0.91

Cheonan City

1.28

allows per match

Jeonju

2.09

Cheonan City

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par

Cheonan City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Cheonan City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw

47%

Jeonju or Cheonan City

76%

Draw or Cheonan City

78%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+

8%

Cheonan City wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals

63%

Jeonju 2+ goals

26%

Jeonju 3+ goals

8%

Cheonan City 1+ goals

82%

Cheonan City 2+ goals

50%

Cheonan City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)

29%

Cheonan City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Cheonan City away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Cheonan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cheonan City attack 1.28 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jeonju scores more

22%

level

24%

Cheonan City scores more

53%

Cheonan City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff