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Cheonan City vs Jeonju — K3 League 2026

Cheonan City
Cheonan City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jeonju
Jeonju
8/8/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 11Chonan Soccer Center Main Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cheonan City46%
×Draw27%
Jeonju27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheonan City
1.36
Jeonju
0.98

Cheonan City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cheonan City
1.27
Jeonju
0.82

allows per match

Cheonan City
1.14
Jeonju
1.45

finishing

Cheonan City+0.00on par
Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheonan City ↓

Jeonju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cheonan City or draw
73%
Cheonan City or Jeonju
73%
Draw or Jeonju
54%

Winning margin

Cheonan City wins by 2+
21%
Jeonju wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cheonan City 1+ goals
74%
Cheonan City 2+ goals
39%
Cheonan City 3+ goals
16%
Jeonju 1+ goals
62%
Jeonju 2+ goals
26%
Jeonju 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cheonan City (draw refunded)
63%
Jeonju (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheonan City at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Jeonju away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheonan City attack 1.27 + Jeonju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jeonju attack 0.82 + Cheonan City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cheonan City scores more
46%
level
27%
Jeonju scores more
27%

Cheonan City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cheonan City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cheonan City vs Jeonju

Cheonan City beat Jeonju 1-0 in K3 League on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Chonan Soccer Center Main Stadium in Cheonan.