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Jeonju vs Changwon City — K3 League 2026

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Changwon City
Changwon City
7/11/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 8Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju26%
×Draw25%
Changwon City49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
1.05
Changwon City
1.56

Changwon City creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Jeonju
0.91
Changwon City
1.03

allows per match

Jeonju
2.09
Changwon City
1.19

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Changwon City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Changwon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
51%
Jeonju or Changwon City
75%
Draw or Changwon City
74%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
10%
Changwon City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
65%
Jeonju 2+ goals
28%
Jeonju 3+ goals
9%
Changwon City 1+ goals
79%
Changwon City 2+ goals
46%
Changwon City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
34%
Changwon City (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Changwon City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.19 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Changwon City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Changwon City attack 1.03 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jeonju scores more
26%
level
25%
Changwon City scores more
49%

Changwon City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonju vs Changwon City

Changwon City beat Jeonju 3-1 in K3 League on July 11, 2020.

The match was played at Jeonju Civil Stadium in Jeonju.