Changwon City 1–0 Jeonju: Result & Stats

Changwon City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jeonju

10/31/2020

K3 League · Relegation Round - 7Changwon Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Changwon City45%

×Draw28%

Jeonju27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changwon CityExpected goals in this matchJeonju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Changwon City

1.29

Jeonju

0.93

Changwon City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 11 away

1.12

creates per match

0.82

1.04

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Changwon City

1.12

Jeonju

0.82

allows per match

Changwon City

1.04

Jeonju

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Changwon City+0.00on par

Jeonju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changwon City ↓

Jeonju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Changwon City or draw

73%

Changwon City or Jeonju

72%

Draw or Jeonju

55%

Winning margin

Changwon City wins by 2+

20%

Jeonju wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Changwon City 1+ goals

72%

Changwon City 2+ goals

37%

Changwon City 3+ goals

14%

Jeonju 1+ goals

61%

Jeonju 2+ goals

24%

Jeonju 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Changwon City (draw refunded)

63%

Jeonju (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changwon City at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Jeonju away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changwon City attack 1.12 + Jeonju defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jeonju attack 0.82 + Changwon City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Changwon City scores more

45%

level

28%

Jeonju scores more

27%

Changwon City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Changwon City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff