Jeonbuk Motors 2–0 Pohang Steelers: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pohang Steelers

Ahn Hyun-Beom 64'

Hernandes 17'

2/14/2024

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors59%

×Draw22%

Pohang Steelers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.97

Jeonbuk Motors

1.91

Pohang Steelers

0.97

Jeonbuk Motors creates 97% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

2.18

creates per match

1.00

0.95

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

2.18

Pohang Steelers

1.00

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

0.95

Pohang Steelers

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

81%

Jeonbuk Motors or Pohang Steelers

78%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

41%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

35%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

85%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

57%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

30%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

62%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

25%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

76%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.91

Pohang Steelers attack 1.00 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

59%

level

22%

Pohang Steelers scores more

19%

Jeonbuk Motors at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

Ahn Hyun-Beom

Jeonbuk Motors · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

Kwang-hun Shin

17'

Hernandes↳ Lee Dong-Jun

24'

Tiago OrobóPenalty cancelled

45+1'

Maeng Seong-Ung← Lee Soo-Bin

46'

Kim Tae-Hwan← Hernandes

46'

Hong Yun-Sang← Eo Jeong-Won

46'

Kim Jun-Ho← Yoon Suk-Ju

56'

Kim Ryun-Seong← Kim In-Sung

58'

Tiago Orobó

64'

Ahn Hyun-Beom↳ Kim Tae-Hwan

67'

Kim Dong-Jin← Lee Ho-Jae

77'

Han Kyo-Won← Lee Dong-Jun

82'

Kang Hyeon-Je← Han Chan-Hee

90'

Jeong Woo-Jae← Kim Tae-Hwan

90'

Jeong Tae-Wook← Lee Yeong-Jae

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JeonbukPohang

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots16

8Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target3

6Off Target8

4Blocked5

6Inside Box6

8Outside Box10

Passing

38%Possession62%

264Total Passes461

179Accurate Passes374

68%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1