Jeonbuk Motors 3–1 Daegu FC: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Daegu FC

4/20/2025

K League 1 · Round 9Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors49%

×Draw25%

Daegu FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchDaegu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.07

Jeonbuk Motors

1.58

Daegu FC

1.07

Jeonbuk Motors creates 48% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 149 away

1.70

creates per match

1.16

0.98

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.70

Daegu FC

1.16

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

0.98

Daegu FC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Daegu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Daegu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

74%

Jeonbuk Motors or Daegu FC

75%

Draw or Daegu FC

51%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

25%

Daegu FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

79%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

47%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

21%

Daegu FC 1+ goals

66%

Daegu FC 2+ goals

29%

Daegu FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

66%

Daegu FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.98 · 158 matches

Daegu FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.70 + Daegu FC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Daegu FC attack 1.16 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

49%

level

25%

Daegu FC scores more

26%

Jeonbuk Motors at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff