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Daegu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — K League 1 2026

Daegu FC
Daegu FC
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
10/6/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 33DGB Daegu Bank Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Daegu FC30%
×Draw26%
Jeonbuk Motors43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daegu FC
1.14
Jeonbuk Motors
1.42

Jeonbuk Motors creates 25% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 154 away

creates per match

Daegu FC
1.33
Jeonbuk Motors
1.55

allows per match

Daegu FC
1.29
Jeonbuk Motors
0.94

finishing

Daegu FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daegu FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Daegu FC or draw
57%
Daegu FC or Jeonbuk Motors
74%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
70%

Winning margin

Daegu FC wins by 2+
12%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Daegu FC 1+ goals
68%
Daegu FC 2+ goals
32%
Daegu FC 3+ goals
11%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
76%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
41%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Daegu FC (draw refunded)
41%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daegu FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 145 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.94 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daegu FC attack 1.33 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.55 + Daegu FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Daegu FC scores more
30%
level
26%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
43%

Jeonbuk Motors at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Daegu FC 4–3 Jeonbuk Motors

Daegu FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 4-3 in K League 1 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at DGB Daegu Bank Park in Daegu.