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Jēkabpils vs JDFS Alberts — Cup 2020

Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Albertsadvanced
K. Strautmanis 87'
R. Zelmanis 83'
M. Zēģele 64'
D. Indrāns 57'
R. Guliaks 48' (pen)
O. Kellers 20'
7/15/2023CupCup · Round of 16Jēkabpils SC stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jēkabpils14%
×Draw15%
JDFS Alberts71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jēkabpils
1.31
JDFS Alberts
3.01

JDFS Alberts creates 130% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jēkabpils
1.40
JDFS Alberts
3.22

allows per match

Jēkabpils
2.80
JDFS Alberts
1.22

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par
JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

JDFS Alberts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw
29%
Jēkabpils or JDFS Alberts
85%
Draw or JDFS Alberts
86%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+
5%
JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals
73%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
38%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
14%
JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
95%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
80%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
17%
JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

JDFS Alberts away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 1.40 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

JDFS Alberts attack 3.22 + Jēkabpils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Jēkabpils scores more
14%
level
15%
JDFS Alberts scores more
71%

JDFS Alberts at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
O. Kellers
47'
E. Visnevskis
48'
R. GuliaksPenalty
55'
S. Petriks
55'
M. Zegele
55'
H. Viksna
55'
J. Trofimovs
57'
D. Indrāns
64'
M. Zēģele
70'
E. Evelons
83'
R. Zelmanis
87'
K. Strautmanis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jēkabpils vs JDFS Alberts

JDFS Alberts beat Jēkabpils 6-0 in Cup on July 15, 2023.

Goals: O. Kellers (20'), R. Guliaks (48' pen), D. Indrāns (57'), M. Zēģele (64'), R. Zelmanis (83'), K. Strautmanis (87').

The match was played at Jēkabpils SC stadions in Jēkabpils.