Jēkabpils 3–2 JDFS Alberts: Result & Stats

Jēkabpils

FT

3 – 2

JDFS Alberts

6/10/2017

1. Liga · Round 9Jēkabpils SC stadions (Jēkabpils)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jēkabpils27%

×Draw23%

JDFS Alberts50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JēkabpilsExpected goals in this matchJDFS Alberts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.88

Jēkabpils

1.33

JDFS Alberts

1.88

JDFS Alberts creates 41% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 87 away

1.33

creates per match

1.76

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Jēkabpils

1.33

JDFS Alberts

1.76

allows per match

Jēkabpils

2.00

JDFS Alberts

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

JDFS Alberts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw

50%

Jēkabpils or JDFS Alberts

77%

Draw or JDFS Alberts

73%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+

12%

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals

74%

Jēkabpils 2+ goals

38%

Jēkabpils 3+ goals

15%

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals

85%

JDFS Alberts 2+ goals

56%

JDFS Alberts 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)

35%

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

JDFS Alberts away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 1.33 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

JDFS Alberts attack 1.76 + Jēkabpils defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jēkabpils scores more

27%

level

23%

JDFS Alberts scores more

50%

JDFS Alberts at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JDFS Alberts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff