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Jednota Bánová vs Dubnica — 3. liga - West 2020

Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
10/14/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 11Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jednota Bánová66%
×Draw18%
Dubnica16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jednota Bánová
2.38
Dubnica
1.08

Jednota Bánová creates 120% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jednota Bánová
1.42
Dubnica
0.93

allows per match

Jednota Bánová
1.24
Dubnica
3.33

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw
84%
Jednota Bánová or Dubnica
82%
Draw or Dubnica
34%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
43%
Dubnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
91%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
68%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
42%
Dubnica 1+ goals
66%
Dubnica 2+ goals
29%
Dubnica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
81%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.42 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more
66%
level
18%
Dubnica scores more
16%

Jednota Bánová at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Jednota Bánová 5–0 Dubnica

Jednota Bánová beat Dubnica 5-0 in 3. liga - West on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalové ihrisko Bánová in Žilina.