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Dubnica vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - West 2020

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
5/12/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 26Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubnica33%
×Draw23%
Jednota Bánová44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.46
Jednota Bánová
1.73

Jednota Bánová creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.00
Jednota Bánová
0.93

allows per match

Dubnica
2.53
Jednota Bánová
1.93

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
56%
Dubnica or Jednota Bánová
77%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
67%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
15%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
77%
Dubnica 2+ goals
43%
Dubnica 3+ goals
18%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
82%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
52%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
43%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.00 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jednota Bánová attack 0.93 + Dubnica defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dubnica scores more
33%
level
23%
Jednota Bánová scores more
44%

Jednota Bánová at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubnica vs Jednota Bánová

Jednota Bánová beat Dubnica 1-0 in 3. liga - West on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.