Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jednota Bánová vs Beluša — 3. liga - West 2020

Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Beluša
Beluša
6/1/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Štadión TJ Jednota Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jednota Bánová35%
×Draw26%
Beluša39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jednota Bánová
1.33
Beluša
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

creates per match

Jednota Bánová
1.42
Beluša
1.60

allows per match

Jednota Bánová
1.24
Beluša
1.25

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par
Beluša+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Beluša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw
61%
Jednota Bánová or Beluša
74%
Draw or Beluša
65%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
16%
Beluša wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
74%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
38%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
15%
Beluša 1+ goals
76%
Beluša 2+ goals
41%
Beluša 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
47%
Beluša (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Beluša away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.42 + Beluša defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Beluša attack 1.60 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more
35%
level
26%
Beluša scores more
39%

Beluša at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jednota Bánová vs Beluša

Beluša beat Jednota Bánová 3-1 in 3. liga - West on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Jednota Bánová in Žilina.