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Beluša vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - West 2020

Beluša
Beluša
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
11/5/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 14Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Beluša60%
×Draw22%
Jednota Bánová19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beluša
1.96
Jednota Bánová
1.00

Beluša creates 96% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Beluša
1.98
Jednota Bánová
0.93

allows per match

Beluša
1.06
Jednota Bánová
1.93

finishing

Beluša+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beluša ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Beluša or draw
81%
Beluša or Jednota Bánová
78%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
40%

Winning margin

Beluša wins by 2+
36%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Beluša 1+ goals
86%
Beluša 2+ goals
58%
Beluša 3+ goals
31%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
63%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
26%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beluša (draw refunded)
76%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beluša at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.06 · 85 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.93 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beluša attack 1.98 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jednota Bánová attack 0.93 + Beluša defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Beluša scores more
60%
level
22%
Jednota Bánová scores more
19%

Beluša at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Beluša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Beluša 2–0 Jednota Bánová

Beluša beat Jednota Bánová 2-0 in 3. liga - West on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Kovo Beluša in Beluša.