Jedinstvo 0–0 Cetinje: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo

FT

0 – 0

Cetinje

9/5/2021

Second League · Round 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo69%

×Draw20%

Cetinje11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JedinstvoExpected goals in this matchCetinje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.64

Jedinstvo

1.98

Cetinje

0.64

Jedinstvo creates 209% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

1.51

creates per match

0.56

0.71

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Jedinstvo

1.51

Cetinje

0.56

allows per match

Jedinstvo

0.71

Cetinje

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo+0.00on par

Cetinje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo ↓

Cetinje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo or draw

89%

Jedinstvo or Cetinje

80%

Draw or Cetinje

31%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo wins by 2+

43%

Cetinje wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jedinstvo 1+ goals

86%

Jedinstvo 2+ goals

59%

Jedinstvo 3+ goals

31%

Cetinje 1+ goals

47%

Cetinje 2+ goals

14%

Cetinje 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)

86%

Cetinje (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.71 · 51 matches

Cetinje away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo attack 1.51 + Cetinje defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Cetinje attack 0.56 + Jedinstvo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Jedinstvo scores more

69%

level

20%

Cetinje scores more

11%

Jedinstvo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jedinstvo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff