Cetinje 0–4 Jedinstvo: Result & Stats

Cetinje

FT

0 – 4

Jedinstvo

10/31/2021

Second League · Round 13Stadion Lugovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cetinje20%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CetinjeExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.81

Cetinje

0.97

Jedinstvo

1.81

Jedinstvo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

0.89

creates per match

1.45

2.17

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Cetinje

0.89

Jedinstvo

1.45

allows per match

Cetinje

2.17

Jedinstvo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cetinje+0.00on par

Jedinstvo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cetinje ↓

Jedinstvo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cetinje or draw

43%

Cetinje or Jedinstvo

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo

80%

Winning margin

Cetinje wins by 2+

7%

Jedinstvo wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Cetinje 1+ goals

62%

Cetinje 2+ goals

25%

Cetinje 3+ goals

7%

Jedinstvo 1+ goals

84%

Jedinstvo 2+ goals

54%

Jedinstvo 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Cetinje (draw refunded)

26%

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cetinje at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Jedinstvo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cetinje attack 0.89 + Jedinstvo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Jedinstvo attack 1.45 + Cetinje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cetinje scores more

20%

level

23%

Jedinstvo scores more

57%

Jedinstvo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jedinstvo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff