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Jedinstvo Ub vs Grafičar — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grafičar
Grafičar
11/18/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 17Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub46%
×Draw26%
Grafičar28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.47
Grafičar
1.08

Jedinstvo Ub creates 36% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 125 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
Grafičar
1.14

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
Grafičar
1.38

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Grafičar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
72%
Jedinstvo Ub or Grafičar
74%
Draw or Grafičar
54%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
23%
Grafičar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
77%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
43%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
18%
Grafičar 1+ goals
66%
Grafičar 2+ goals
29%
Grafičar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
62%
Grafičar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
46%
level
26%
Grafičar scores more
28%

Jedinstvo Ub at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 3–1 Grafičar

Jedinstvo Ub beat Grafičar 3-1 in Prva Liga on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.