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Grafičar vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
11/15/2025Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 18Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Grafičar50%
×Draw25%
Jedinstvo Ub25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.55
Jedinstvo Ub
1.02

Grafičar creates 52% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 55 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
75%
Grafičar or Jedinstvo Ub
75%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
50%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
25%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
79%
Grafičar 2+ goals
46%
Grafičar 3+ goals
20%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
64%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
27%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
67%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.55

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grafičar scores more
50%
level
25%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
25%

Grafičar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grafičar vs Jedinstvo Ub

Grafičar beat Jedinstvo Ub 4-0 in Prva Liga on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.