Jedinstvo Ub 1–0 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

A. Paić 90+1'

5/4/2025

Super Liga · Relegation Round - 4Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub38%

×Draw27%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Jedinstvo Ub

1.27

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 143 away

1.00

creates per match

0.94

1.50

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.00

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0.94

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.50

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

65%

Jedinstvo Ub or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

73%

Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

62%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

17%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

72%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

36%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

14%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals

70%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals

34%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

52%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.94 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

38%

level

27%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more

35%

Jedinstvo Ub at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Vulić

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · G

8.0

Match Events

31'

M. Mijić← Léo Antônio

46'

N. Robertha← V. Ubiparip

46'

S. Tomović← L. Bijelović

56'

Mihajlo Bogićević

59'

R. Denzell← M. Mitrović

68'

K. Osei← N. Krsmanović

75'

M. Bešić← Kayque

81'

R. Lazić← I. Abass

87'

L. Mladenović← S. Rakić

87'

D. Aćimović← I. Rogač

90+3'

Viktor Damjanić

90+1'

Aleksa Paic

90+1'

A. Paić↳ V. Kijevčanin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JedinstvoFK

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots10

8Corners3

19Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target3

3Off Target4

7Blocked3

10Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

287Total Passes393

218Accurate Passes323

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

19Fouls20

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1