Jedinstvo Ub vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Jedinstvo Ub38%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 18 home / 143 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jedinstvo Ub ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 143 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.94 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Jedinstvo Ub at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SADFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Jedinstvo Ub host FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV on Sunday, 29 September 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2026/2027 season.
Super Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 2–0 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Jedinstvo Ub beat FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2-0 in Super Liga on September 29, 2024.
Goals: R. Denzell (63', 90+2').
Jedinstvo Ub controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 7.
The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.