Jedinstvo Ub 0–1 Cukaricki: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cukaricki

M. Cvetković 43'

2/23/2025

Super Liga · Round 24Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub32%

×Draw26%

Cukaricki42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchCukaricki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.40

Jedinstvo Ub

1.18

Cukaricki

1.40

Cukaricki creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 141 away

1.00

creates per match

1.30

1.50

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.00

Cukaricki

1.30

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.50

Cukaricki

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Cukaricki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

58%

Jedinstvo Ub or Cukaricki

74%

Draw or Cukaricki

68%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

13%

Cukaricki wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

69%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

33%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

12%

Cukaricki 1+ goals

75%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

41%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

43%

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.35 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cukaricki attack 1.30 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

32%

level

26%

Cukaricki scores more

42%

Cukaricki at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Docić

Cukaricki · M

7.6

Match Events

14'

L. Stojanović← V. Jovanović

29'

Viktor Damjanić

43'

M. Cvetković↳ U. Miladinović

45+2'

Uroš Miladinović

56'

Nikola Stanković

64'

S. Rakić← U. Stevančević

67'

Ivan Rogač

69'

S. Sissoko← L. Tufegdžić

76'

U. Savković← R. Denzell

77'

M. Pavkov← M. Cvetković

77'

U. Kabić← Đ. Ivanović

77'

S. Srnić← U. Miladinović

87'

R. Lazić← I. Rogač

87'

Simón Moreno← I. Abass

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JedinstvoCukaricki

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots14

3Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked5

4Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

393Total Passes420

300Accurate Passes337

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides5