Cukaricki 2–1 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jedinstvo Ub

Vinicius Mello 55'

L. Tufegdžić 51'

M. Mitrović 18'

9/21/2024

Super Liga · Round 9Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cukaricki67%

×Draw20%

Jedinstvo Ub13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.81

Cukaricki

2.11

Jedinstvo Ub

0.81

Cukaricki creates 160% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 19 away

1.80

creates per match

0.74

0.89

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.80

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

Cukaricki

0.89

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

87%

Cukaricki or Jedinstvo Ub

80%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

33%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

43%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

88%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

62%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

35%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

56%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

19%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

83%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.89 · 142 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.80 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.11

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Cukaricki scores more

67%

level

20%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

13%

Cukaricki at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Tufegdžić

Cukaricki · M

8.7

Match Events

18'

M. Mitrović

46'

U. Miladinović← M. Tzionis

46'

M. Docić← V. Rogan

51'

L. Tufegdžić↳ V. Serafimović

55'

Vinicius Mello↳ U. Miladinović

59'

D. Jevtić← R. Denzell

59'

D. Miladinović← L. Zhordania

59'

U. Stevančević← M. Mitrović

70'

I. Kargbo← T. Pérez

77'

M. Cvetković← Vinicius Mello

77'

E. Ceesay← V. Damjanić

90+1'

Edrissa Ceesay

90'

G. Vadze← Đ. Ivanović

90'

S. Tedić← L. Tufegdžić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CukarickiJedinstvo

Overview

65%Possession35%

25Total Shots9

6Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

25Total Shots9

2On Target4

16Off Target3

7Blocked2

18Inside Box2

7Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

571Total Passes317

480Accurate Passes223

84%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1