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Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
FT
2 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
11/15/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova66%
×Draw20%
Dunav Stari Banovci14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
2.06
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.80

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 157% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 28 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.38
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.04
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw
86%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Dunav Stari Banovci
80%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
34%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
42%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
87%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
61%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
34%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
55%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
19%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
83%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
66%
level
20%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
14%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Dunav Stari Banovci

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Dunav Stari Banovci 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Stara Pazova.