Dunav Stari Banovci 2–3 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Dunav Stari Banovci

FT

2 – 3

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

5/23/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 36Stadion Pod Bairom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav Stari Banovci39%

×Draw24%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav Stari BanovciExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.50

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.54

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

1.30

creates per match

1.03

1.96

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.30

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

Dunav Stari Banovci

1.96

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Stari Banovci ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dunav Stari Banovci or draw

63%

Dunav Stari Banovci or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

76%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

61%

Winning margin

Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+

19%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals

79%

Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals

45%

Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals

20%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

78%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

44%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)

51%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Stari Banovci at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 1.30 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dunav Stari Banovci scores more

39%

level

24%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

37%

Dunav Stari Banovci at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dunav Stari Banovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff